{"id":10580,"date":"2026-08-11T12:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T10:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/?p=10580"},"modified":"2026-08-11T12:59:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T10:59:17","slug":"hypothesis-driven-working","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/en\/hypothesis-driven-working\/","title":{"rendered":"Hypothesis-Driven Working"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"lead wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Your team has been debating priorities for weeks, but nobody has spoken to a customer. The roadmap is built on stakeholder opinions, not evidence. And the last product launch? It missed the target audience.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.btc-study-hero{border:1px solid #e5e7eb;border-left:5px solid #283583;border-radius:14px;background:#f7f8fc;box-shadow:0 8px 24px rgba(40,53,131,.08);max-width:840px;margin:24px auto 32px;padding:28px 30px}\n.btc-study-hero .eyebrow{display:inline-block;background:#283583;color:#fff;font-size:.72rem;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;padding:4px 11px;border-radius:999px;margin-bottom:12px}\n.btc-study-hero h2{color:#283583;margin:0 0 10px;font-size:1.5rem;line-height:1.25}\n.btc-study-hero p{color:#374151;margin:0 0 18px;line-height:1.55}\n.btc-study-hero a.btc-btn{display:inline-block;background:#283583;color:#fff;text-decoration:none;font-weight:600;padding:13px 26px;border-radius:999px;transition:background .15s ease}\n.btc-study-hero a.btc-btn:hover{background:#1d2a6b}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"btc-study-hero\">\n  <span class=\"eyebrow\">JTBD research in practice<\/span>\n  <h2>What does Jobs-to-be-Done research actually look like?<\/h2>\n  <p>See it in a real case: the 2026 Bitcoin Adoption Study \u2013 35 in-depth interviews, 6 buyer segments, 1,207 coded evidence cards, analysed with the Wheel of Progress. No personas, no gut feeling \u2013 documented job logic you can base decisions on.<\/p>\n  <a class=\"btc-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/btc-adoption-studie\/\">View the study &rarr;<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hypothesis-driven working is the counter-programme to gut-feel decision-making. It is a structured approach: systematically uncover blind spots, test critical assumptions, and only act once you have evidence \u2013 not consensus. Combined with <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/was-sind-jtbd-interviews\/\">JTBD interviews<\/a>, it becomes the sharpest weapon against the most expensive source of error in any business: decisions built on assumptions nobody has tested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Video: hypothesis-driven working explained in 6 minutes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;margin-bottom:1em;\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SRs8ocBBN3Y\" title=\"Hypothesis-driven working: 5 steps from gut feeling to evidence\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-1024x1024.jpg\" alt=\"Innovation podcast on hypothesis-driven working\" class=\"wp-image-4719 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this JTBD podcast shot, Peter Rochel explains what hypothesis-driven working is. In just under 6 minutes, Peter shows you what to look out for and shares valuable tips and tricks that will save you time, nerves and money.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/de\/podcast\/shot-hypothesenbasiert-arbeiten\/id1354901024?i=1000556834450\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-93 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/listen-on-apple-podcast.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"171\" height=\"41\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/episode\/164Ff1WWKMwy0RbMFnkq7x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-97 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/listen-on-spotify.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"113\" height=\"41\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/music.amazon.de\/podcasts\/4838bd28-7b97-4912-80cb-de39a6c75654\/episodes\/d39cc061-247b-4872-a7c7-dde9ff9a6e64\/innovate-upgrade-shot-hypothesenbasiert-arbeiten\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-2932\" src=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/ListenOn_AmazonMusic_button_Black_RGB_5X_DE-300x73.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"168\" height=\"41\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/ListenOn_AmazonMusic_button_Black_RGB_5X_DE-300x73.png 300w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/ListenOn_AmazonMusic_button_Black_RGB_5X_DE-768x187.png 768w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/ListenOn_AmazonMusic_button_Black_RGB_5X_DE.png 826w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 168px) 100vw, 168px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.google.com\/feed\/aHR0cHM6Ly96dW04cnkucG9kY2FzdGVyLmRlL29iZXJ3YXNzZXIucnNz\/episode\/cG9kLWZlYzEzOTE4NGQ4MTc4ZWMxODA2ZmFhZjgzMDg?sa=X&amp;ved=0CAIQuIEEahgKEwiYycuwl_z7AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQuAE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2934\" src=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/DE_Google_Podcasts_Badge_8x-300x76.png\" alt=\"jobs to be done podcast\" width=\"162\" height=\"41\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/DE_Google_Podcasts_Badge_8x-300x76.png 300w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/DE_Google_Podcasts_Badge_8x-1024x259.png 1024w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/DE_Google_Podcasts_Badge_8x-768x195.png 768w, https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/DE_Google_Podcasts_Badge_8x.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 162px) 100vw, 162px\" \/><\/a>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Listen to I+U season 2, episode 039 right here<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/shot-hypothesenbasiert-arbeiten\/id1354901024?i=1000556834450&amp;itsct=podcast_box_player&amp;itscg=30200&amp;ls=1&amp;theme=auto\" height=\"175px\" frameborder=\"0\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; clipboard-write\" style=\"width: 100%; max-width: 660px; overflow: hidden; border-radius: 10px; background-color: transparent;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>All chapter timestamps for this episode<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">00:00:00 Intro <br>00:00:25 Clarification <br>00:01:56 5 steps <br>00:02:51 Four possible outcomes <br>00:04:29 Tools<br>00:05:41 Get out<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"tel:+4922116903859\" style=\"background-color:#0376a8\">What do you think about it? Leave us your comment on our voicemail +49 221 16903859<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weitere-episoden-dazu-direkt-hier\">More episodes on this topic right here<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stattys.com\/de\/methoden\/business-model-generation\/testtools\">Test and learning cards for documenting hypotheses and insights in the Statty Shop<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boardle.io\/boards\/jtbd-Hypothesis-Building\">Free template for a JTBD hypothesis <\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/en\/jobs-to-be-done-free-tools\/\">Tools for conducting and documenting Jobs to Be Done customer interviews<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When hypothesis-driven working makes the difference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In practice, I keep seeing the same situations: teams <em>believe<\/em> they understand their customers \u2013 yet do not stand on a single tested hypothesis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u201cWe know what our customers want\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 but the last real customer research was three years ago, and the market has moved on since.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cSales asked for the feature\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 stakeholder wishes are not customer evidence. They are <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/demand-side-vs-supply-side-thinking-bessere-produkte-durch-perspektivwechsel\/\">supply-side thinking<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cOur competitors do it too\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 copying competitors is the opposite of innovation. It means adopting other people&#8217;s untested assumptions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cWe had no time for customer research\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 but time for three feature iterations nobody uses? <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/customer-insights-sprint\/\">A Customer Insights Sprint<\/a> takes four weeks and saves months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hypothesis-driven working is the antidote: you write down what you believe you know. You define what would prove you wrong. And then you test \u2013 with real customers, real data, real decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-63375db1 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"#entscheidungsloop\">Decision Loop Check: where are you losing customers?<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The podcast episode in detail<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this Innovate+Upgrade Shot, Peter Rochel explains in 6 minutes the five steps of hypothesis-driven working, the four possible test outcomes and which tools work best in practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">There are five steps to working hypothesis-driven:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Define your hypothesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consider how you can test the hypothesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plan how and what you want to measure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Set criteria for judging whether your hypothesis has been confirmed or refuted.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Allow for the four possible outcomes: hypothesis confirmed, hypothesis refuted, inconclusive result or new insights.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tools<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are various tools that can help you work hypothesis-driven \u2013 for example the test cards, learning cards, screener cards and assumption map we use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-63375db1 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"#entscheidungsloop\">Your first step: start the Decision Loop Check<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are interested in delivering innovation and transformation with Jobs to be Done and want to win enthusiastic customers and employees, do get in touch. We offer <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/en\/mastering-jtbd\/\">workshops<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/customer-insights-sprint\/\">sprints<\/a> and training programmes aimed at exactly that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">You can read the full transcript of this podcast here:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This Shot is about hypothesis-driven working: what exactly it is, how it works, why it is so important and which tools can help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to an Innovate &amp; Upgrade Shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here we take a short, punchy look at very practical questions around customer interviews, Jobs to Be Done and The Wheel of Progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My name is Peter Rochel \u2013 and here we go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For me, hypothesis-driven working is a structured approach to systematically identifying, assessing and eliminating blind spots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And all of this matters above all when you are venturing into uncertain territory \u2013 it is especially important in innovation or exploration mode, because we tend to deceive ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is, we cling to our cherished habits, just as all people do, and of course we all have a strong, unconscious attachment to our own beliefs and pet ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Letting go of them is very, very difficult \u2013 all the more reason to have a structured approach that lets us recognise our own assumptions, assess them, weigh them, classify them, document them and then also see our own progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Especially when working with Jobs-to-be-Done theory and the methods that go with it, such as working with the Wheel of Progress, it very often happens that your own beliefs quickly come under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So all the more reason to tackle things there with a hypothesis-driven approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Which makes it all the more important to get a clear view of it and not blind yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Really important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And you can picture the whole thing working quite well in five steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first is to define the hypothesis in the first place \u2013 to write down what you as a team actually believe, or what you yourself believe, what you think is right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, think about how you can test it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third, think about how you want to measure it \u2013 or what you actually want to measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then think about which criteria you will apply so that you have evidence to say: OK, if this happens and I measure this, I am right \u2013 and if I measure that, I am wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So: define criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And finally, remind yourself that when you work hypothesis-driven in this way \u2013 you have defined your hypothesis, defined your assumption, you have measured it, you have tested it \u2013 you can in principle get four different outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You may find: OK, the assumption holds, I was right, and now I have somewhat stronger evidence for it, because I ran an experiment and was able to confirm it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second variant is that your experiment could not confirm the assumption and in fact actually refuted it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then you have three options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Either you throw it out, go back into your business model design or your value proposition design \u2013 or whatever it is you are doing, your channel design \u2013 and start again from the beginning, thinking about what you need to do instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the third variant, if the test has refuted your assumption, would be to test differently if need be and run a further experiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So: the first possibility was hypothesis confirmed, the second possibility was hypothesis refuted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third possibility is that you get an inconclusive result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that means you will probably have to test again, because perhaps your measurement criteria were sloppy, or the test was not suitable for checking the assumption \u2013 or, or, or.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And when something is unclear, you have no choice: you have to test again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fourth possible outcome is that, on top of that, you gain a completely new insight \u2013 something you did not know at all before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that in turn means you can build it back into your business model design, your product design or your marketing, depending on what you tested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for tools you can use for this, tools that help \u2013 ones I use myself, that we use \u2013 it depends on whether you are working online or offline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The offline versions are well worth a look, and they are not expensive either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are, for example, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stattys.com\/en\/methods\/business-model-generation\/testing-tools\/bmg-test-card\">test cards from Strategyzer<\/a>, which are excellent for practising this a little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How do you actually formulate sound hypotheses and test criteria and all the rest of it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then there are learning cards, where you can also document any new insights you have gained and what exactly they look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then we have our screener cards, which we use to identify Jobs-to-be-Done interview candidates \u2013 essentially a special kind of test or hypothesis card that we use there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then there is also the assumption map \u2013 whether you really need it is open to debate, but it is basically a matrix where you can assess your assumptions once more: OK, are they important or unimportant, do I already have certainty here or not? Then you can more or less sort them and decide what you really need to test, what you can build straight into your business model design, your product design or your marketing, and what does not matter anyway and can simply be left alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is it for today. And if you are now thinking, hey, I finally want to deliver innovation and transformation with Jobs to be Done too \u2013 so that you always have enough delighted paying customers, and enthusiastic employees who genuinely want to do a really good job with you for the long term \u2013 then get in touch with me, because that is exactly what I can help you with, for example through our workshops, sprints and training programmes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because that is precisely what we do \u2013 and it does not matter how small or large your company is, in almost any industry, in German, English or Spanish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You will find all the links and ways to contact me in the show notes, and of course I would be delighted if you recommend this podcast to others, or even rate it and give me feedback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you for your time \u2013 and hopefully see you soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"entscheidungsloop\">Where does your decision process get stuck?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hypothesis-driven working starts with an honest stocktake. The <strong>Decision Loop Check<\/strong> shows you in 10 minutes where your decision process is losing customers \u2013 and what you can change in concrete terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/entscheidungsloop-check\/\">Start the Decision Loop Check<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Free PDF workbook \u2013 sent straight to your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe at any time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1775204622164-90e1a814\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">What does hypothesis-driven working mean?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Hypothesis-driven working means basing decisions not on assumptions or gut feeling but on tested hypotheses. You formulate a clear thesis (e.g. &#8220;Our customers buy because of X&#8221;), test it against real evidence \u2013 and only then act. The opposite is opinion-based working, which regularly steers companies in the wrong direction.<\/p> <\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1775204622166-ba5ba8d1\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">How does the hypothesis process work in practice?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">In five steps: (1) Formulate the hypothesis \u2013 what do you believe you know? (2) Define test criteria \u2013 what would prove you wrong? (3) Gather evidence \u2013 through <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/was-sind-jtbd-interviews\/\">JTBD interviews<\/a>, data, observation. (4) Validate or discard the hypothesis. (5) Make the decision \u2013 this time with backing.<\/p> <\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1775204622169-34d84236\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">What does Jobs to be Done have to do with hypotheses?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">JTBD is the tool for testing hypotheses about customer motivation. Most assumptions about &#8220;why do customers buy?&#8221; are wrong \u2013 not because teams are naive, but because supply-side thinking distorts the view. JTBD interviews deliver the evidence that either confirms or refutes hypotheses.<\/p> <\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1775204622172-565379c8\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Who is hypothesis-driven working relevant for?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">For every team that makes strategic decisions: product development, marketing, sales, senior management. Wherever assumptions become expensive \u2013 new products, repositioning, market entry, budget allocation \u2013 hypothesis-driven working measurably reduces the risk.<\/p> <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Related symptom diagnosis:<\/strong> What helps when your hypothesis is not confirmed? Three projects show why the assumed buying barrier is almost never the real one: <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/warum-kunden-nicht-kaufen\/\">Why do customers not buy, even though the product is good?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When the method is applied under deadline pressure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hypothesis-driven prioritisation is a thinking and decision-making tool. If the quarterly presentation is due in 4\u20138 weeks and the data is missing, a Customer Insights Sprint delivers evidence that holds up internally \u2013 in 4\u20136 weeks, with a stakeholder-ready one-page briefing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/roadmap-priorisierung-check\/\"><strong>\u2192 If you have to decide this quarter, assumptions are not a basis<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Background:<\/strong> If you work hypothesis-driven, you test assumptions \u2013 if you want to know why decisions are made in the first place, look at the <a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/en\/jobs-to-be-done-jtbd-understanding-customers-enabling-innovation\/\">mechanics behind buying decisions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you test assumptions, you want to know what is actually moving in the field. That is exactly what the OC Radar is for: every two weeks, two or three signals at the intersection of AI and customer understanding, plus a case from our ongoing research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/oc-radar\/\"><strong>&rarr; Subscribe to the OC Radar<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this JTBD podcast shot, Peter Rochel explains what hypothesis-driven working is. In just under 6 minutes, Peter shows you what to look out for and shares valuable tips and tricks that will save you time, nerves and money.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"1","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"https:\/\/oberwasser-consulting.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/HopothesenTesten-300x300.jpg","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1403],"tags":[1295,1405],"class_list":["post-10580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podcast-innovateupgrade","tag-jtbd-en-2","tag-shot-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hypothesis-Driven Working &#8226; Oberwasser Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hypothesis-Driven Working\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this JTBD podcast shot, Peter Rochel explains what hypothesis-driven working is. 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